MPEC 1999-K07 : 1999 AN10
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M.P.E.C. 1999-K07 Issued 1999 May 17, 23:21 UT
The Minor Planet Electronic Circulars contain information on unusual
minor planets and routine data on comets. They are published
on behalf of Commission 20 of the International Astronomical Union by the
Minor Planet Center, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory,
Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
BMARSDEN@CFA.HARVARD.EDU or GWILLIAMS@CFA.HARVARD.EDU
URL http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/mpc.html ISSN 1523-6714
1999 AN10
Revision to MPEC 1999-B03
Observations:
J99A10N C1999 05 15.83400 00 32 51.60 -05 55 59.8 20.7 V 426
J99A10N C1999 05 15.84031 00 32 51.85 -05 55 43.9 20.4 V 426
J99A10N C1999 05 15.84669 00 32 52.05 -05 55 26.5 20.2 V 426
J99A10N C1999 05 16.82984 00 33 27.94 -05 12 30.5 20.9 V 426
J99A10N C1999 05 16.83622 00 33 28.13 -05 12 13.8 20.5 V 426
J99A10N C1999 05 16.84244 00 33 28.38 -05 11 56.7 20.9 V 426
Observer details:
426 Woomera. Observer F. B. Zoltowski. 0.30-m f/3.3 Schmidt-Cassegrain + CCD.
First and last observations above in comparison with prediction:
Residuals in seconds of arc and reference
990515 426 6.8+ 5.7+ 990516 426 7.0+ 6.4+ MPC 34039
Orbital elements:
1999 AN10 PHA 0.015A
Epoch 1999 Aug. 10.0 TT = JDT 2451400.5 Marsden
M 70.04852 (2000.0) P Q
n 0.55940463 Peri. 268.25207 -0.56757200 +0.68457399
a 1.4587650 Node 314.55292 -0.21819432 -0.66076313
e 0.5621474 Incl. 39.93223 -0.79388492 -0.30781574
P 1.76 H 18.0 G 0.15 U 4
Residuals in seconds of arc
990113 704 1.1+ 0.9+ 990121 046 0.4+ 0.1- 990208 704 0.3- 0.1+
990113 704 (0.0 2.4-) 990121 046 0.0 0.0 990208 704 0.7- 0.8+
990113 704 0.7- 0.4- 990121 587 0.3- 0.4- 990208 900 0.3- 0.1+
990113 704 0.3+ 0.5+ 990121 587 0.2- 0.2- 990208 900 0.3+ 0.4-
990113 704 2.0- 0.1- 990123 071 0.1- 0.2+ 990208 402 0.1- 0.3-
990114 557 0.3- 0.4- 990123 071 0.0 0.1+ 990208 402 0.0 0.8-
990114 557 0.1- 0.1+ 990124 046 0.3+ 0.0 990208 402 0.3+ 0.8-
990115 046 0.0 0.1+ 990124 046 0.3+ 0.0 990209 360 0.4+ 0.1+
990115 046 0.1- 0.3+ 990124 046 0.1- 0.2- 990209 360 0.6+ 0.4+
990115 046 0.3- 0.4- 990124 046 0.8+ 0.2- 990209 360 0.3+ 0.2+
990115 046 0.2- 0.2- 990124 658 0.2+ 0.5- 990212 587 0.1- 0.8+
990115 046 0.4- 0.2+ 990124 658 0.2- 0.3- 990212 587 0.0 0.8-
990115 587 0.7+ 0.8+ 990124 658 0.2+ 0.5- 990212 587 0.0 0.1-
990115 587 0.1- 1.1+ 990126 071 0.3+ 0.5+ 990214 587 0.5- 0.1+
990116 704 0.6+ 0.3- 990126 071 (0.3- 2.9+) 990214 587 1.0- 0.2-
990116 704 0.2+ 0.1+ 990126 402 0.4+ 0.8+ 990214 587 0.2+ 0.2+
990116 704 0.8- 0.4+ 990126 402 0.3- 0.3+ 990215 046 0.6- 0.3-
990116 704 0.2+ 0.6+ 990126 402 0.4+ 0.7+ 990215 046 0.2+ 0.6+
990117 046 0.0 0.1+ 990126 360 0.3+ 0.3+ 990215 046 0.0 0.6+
990117 046 0.1+ 0.2- 990126 360 0.1- 0.6+ 990215 046 0.2+ 0.5+
990117 046 0.0 0.2+ 990126 360 0.3+ 0.4+ 990218 104 0.0 1.0-
990117 046 0.0 0.0 990127 587 0.5- 0.1+ 990218 587 0.1- 1.0+
990117 402 0.5- 0.2+ 990127 587 0.3- 0.3- 990218 587 0.9- 0.3-
990117 402 0.2- 0.0 990130 402 0.7+ 0.6+ 990218 587 0.5+ 0.7+
990117 402 0.4- 0.2+ 990130 402 0.0 0.2- 990218 587 0.9+ 0.8-
990117 540 0.7- 0.3+ 990130 402 0.1+ 0.3- 990220 428 0.7+ 0.8-
990117 540 0.6- 0.2+ 990204 402 0.2+ 0.0 990220 428 0.9+ 1.4-
990117 540 (2.1- 0.2+) 990204 402 0.0 0.1- 990515 426 0.2- 0.4+
990119 151 0.9- 0.2- 990207 587 0.4+ 0.1- 990515 426 0.3+ 0.3-
990119 151 0.6+ 0.2+ 990207 587 0.7+ 0.4+ 990515 426 0.1+ 0.4+
990119 151 (3.4- 1.4+) 990207 587 0.5+ 0.4- 990516 426 0.2- 0.0
990119 587 0.1+ 0.0 990208 704 (0.8+ 2.9+) 990516 426 0.7- 0.1+
990119 587 0.2- 0.2+ 990208 704 0.5+ 0.3+ 990516 426 0.3- 0.9+
990121 046 0.1- 0.2- 990208 704 0.5- 0.8+
Ephemeris:
1999 AN10 a,e,i = 1.46, 0.56, 40 q = 0.6387
Date TT R. A. (2000) Decl. Delta r Elong. Phase V
1999 05 12 00 30.69 -08 45.0 1.035 0.837 48.3 64.3 20.0
1999 05 17 00 33.56 -05 05.2 1.059 0.883 50.5 62.0 20.1
1999 05 22 00 36.80 -01 29.5 1.077 0.931 52.8 60.0 20.2
1999 05 27 00 40.24 +02 02.1 1.092 0.979 55.3 58.3 20.2
1999 06 01 00 43.73 +05 29.5 1.103 1.028 57.9 56.7 20.3
1999 06 06 00 47.16 +08 53.4 1.110 1.076 60.6 55.3 20.4
1999 06 11 00 50.44 +12 13.9 1.114 1.124 63.5 54.0 20.5
1999 06 16 00 53.44 +15 31.5 1.116 1.171 66.4 52.7 20.5
1999 06 21 00 56.05 +18 46.6 1.115 1.217 69.5 51.4 20.6
1999 06 26 00 58.20 +21 59.4 1.112 1.262 72.6 50.2 20.6
1999 07 01 00 59.75 +25 10.2 1.108 1.307 75.8 49.0 20.6
1999 07 06 01 00.59 +28 18.9 1.102 1.350 79.1 47.7 20.7
1999 07 11 01 00.57 +31 25.4 1.096 1.393 82.4 46.4 20.7
1999 07 16 00 59.51 +34 29.1 1.089 1.434 85.8 45.0 20.7
1999 07 21 00 57.23 +37 29.3 1.082 1.474 89.2 43.6 20.7
1999 07 26 00 53.51 +40 24.6 1.076 1.513 92.6 42.1 20.7
1999 07 31 00 48.14 +43 13.5 1.070 1.551 96.1 40.6 20.7
1999 08 05 00 40.88 +45 53.9 1.066 1.588 99.4 39.1 20.7
1999 08 10 00 31.50 +48 22.8 1.064 1.624 102.8 37.5 20.7
1999 08 15 00 19.85 +50 36.8 1.064 1.658 106.0 36.0 20.7
1999 08 20 00 05.89 +52 32.2 1.066 1.692 109.0 34.4 20.7
1999 08 25 23 49.82 +54 05.4 1.071 1.724 111.8 33.0 20.7
1999 08 30 23 32.05 +55 13.1 1.080 1.756 114.3 31.6 20.7
1999 09 04 23 13.24 +55 53.3 1.092 1.786 116.5 30.3 20.8
1999 09 09 22 54.25 +56 05.2 1.107 1.816 118.3 29.2 20.8
1999 09 14 22 36.00 +55 50.1 1.127 1.844 119.6 28.3 20.8
1999 09 19 22 19.31 +55 11.0 1.150 1.872 120.5 27.6 20.9
1999 09 24 22 04.73 +54 12.0 1.177 1.898 120.9 27.0 21.0
1999 09 29 21 52.53 +52 58.0 1.208 1.924 120.8 26.6 21.0
1999 10 04 21 42.78 +51 33.4 1.242 1.948 120.2 26.3 21.1
1999 10 09 21 35.38 +50 02.3 1.280 1.972 119.3 26.2 21.2
1999 10 14 21 30.15 +48 28.3 1.322 1.994 118.0 26.2 21.3
1999 10 19 21 26.86 +46 54.4 1.366 2.016 116.3 26.3 21.4
1999 10 24 21 25.27 +45 22.8 1.413 2.037 114.5 26.4 21.5
1999 10 29 21 25.15 +43 55.2 1.462 2.057 112.4 26.5 21.6
1999 11 03 21 26.29 +42 32.5 1.514 2.076 110.1 26.7 21.7
1999 11 08 21 28.54 +41 15.8 1.567 2.094 107.7 26.8 21.8
1999 11 13 21 31.74 +40 05.4 1.623 2.111 105.2 26.9 21.9
1999 11 18 21 35.77 +39 01.9 1.679 2.127 102.7 27.0 22.0
Computations by B. G. Marsden and G. V. Williams show that the above
orbital elements yield a NOMINAL approach distance to the earth of 0.00038
AU on 2027 Aug. 7.42 UT. The MINIMUM POSSIBLE distance on that day is 0.00026
AU. A generous estimate of the MAXIMUM miss distance on that day is 0.010 AU,
corresponding to a temporal uncertainty of +/- 0.6 day, significantly down
from the 0.2 AU and +/- 12 days of the MPC 34039 orbit. This result therefore
means that not only the general but many of the specific conclusions of Milani
et al. (http://copernico.dm.unipi.it/~milani/resret/; Astron. Astrophys.
Letters, in press) are still valid. Additional observations during the next
several months will be useful, because there are no other reasonable
observing opportunities until at least 2004.
Brian G. Marsden (C) Copyright 1999 MPC M.P.E.C. 1999-K07
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